Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea.

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Helicobacter pylori seropositivity is associated with antinuclear antibodies in US adults, NHANES 1999-2000.

Infectious diseases, such as Helicobacter pylori, which produce systemic inflammation may be one key factor in the onset of autoimmunity. The association between H. pylori and antinuclear antibodies (ANA), a marker of autoimmunity, has been understudied. Data from the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to evaluate the cross-sectional association between H. pylori seroprevalence and ANA positivity in US adults aged ≥20 years. ANA was measured in a 1:80 dilution of sera by indirect immunofluorescence using HEp-2 cells (positive ⩾3). H. pylori immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to categorise individuals as seropositive or seronegative. H. pylori seropositivity and ANA positivity were common in the adult US population, with estimated prevalences of 33.3% and 9.9%, respectively. Both were associated with increasing age. H. pylori seropositivity was associated with higher odds of ANA (prevalence odds ratio = 1.89, 95% confidence interval = 1.08-3.33), adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational attainment and body mass index. H. pylori infection may be one key factor in the loss of self-tolerance, contributing to immune dysfunction.

[Colonel Hermann Schwyter, equine surgeon, a formative personality of equine medicine]. / Oberst Hermann Schwyter, Oberpferdarzt, eine prägende Persönlichkeit der Pferdemedizin.

INTRODUCTION: The biography of Colonel Hermann Schwyter, equine surgeon of the Swiss Army from 1928 to 1937, and the history of training of farriers in Switzerland since the 18th century are presented. Hermann Schwyters dissertation examined the changes of equine hoof confirmation as a result of standing and gait in approximately 2,000 horses and numerous anatomical specimens. He defines the foot placement, describes possible variations, their causes and effects. Significant is also his study of the compression pathology in horses and mules. His recommendations are still valid today. The present article refers to his authored textbook "The Swiss military farrier" and to his established journal, which is bearing the same title.

INTRODUCTION: On présente la biographie du colonel Hermann Schwyter, vétérinaire en chef de l'armée suisse de 1928 à 1937 et l'historique de la formation des maréchaux en Suisse depuis le XVIIIe siècle. Dans sa thèse, Hermann Schwyter a examiné l'évolution de la forme du pied du cheval en fonction des aplombs et des allures sur environ 2000 chevaux et de nombreuses préparations. Il a défini la position normale du pied, décrit les déviations, leurs causes et leurs effets. Il faut également souligner son étude sur les dommages dus aux pressions chez les chevaux et les mulets. Ses recommandations sont toujours valables aujourd'hui. Il est également fait référence à son ouvrage «Le maréchal-ferrant militaire suisse¼ ainsi qu'au journal portant le même titre qu'il avait créé.

Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea.

Aiming to inform both marine management and the public, coupled environmental-climate scenario simulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. The projections are performed under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and three nutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausible socio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimistic scenario with perfect implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), the projections suggest that the achievement of Good Environmental Status will take at least a few more decades. However, for the perception of the attractiveness of beach recreational sites, extreme events such as tropical nights, record-breaking sea surface temperature (SST), and cyanobacteria blooms may be more important than mean ecosystem indicators. Our projections suggest that the incidence of record-breaking summer SSTs will increase significantly. Under the BSAP, record-breaking cyanobacteria blooms will no longer occur in the future, but may reappear at the end of the century in a business-as-usual nutrient load scenario.

Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea.

We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.

Experimental data of thermal cracking of soybean oil and blends with hydrogenated fat.

This article presents the experimental data on the thermal cracking of soybean oil and blends with hydrogenated fat. Thermal cracking experiments were carried out in a plug flow reactor with pure soybean oil and two blends with hydrogenated fat to reduce the degree of unsaturation of the feedstock. The same operational conditions was considered. The data obtained showed a total aromatics content reduction by 14% with the lowest degree of unsaturation feedstock. Other physicochemical data is presented, such as iodine index, acid index, density, kinematic viscosity. A distillation curve was carried out and compared with the curve from a petroleum sample.

The impact of pathogen burden on leukocyte telomere length in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Several infections have been linked to telomere shortening and in some cases these associations have varied by sex. We assessed the association between seropositivity to four persistent pathogens (cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex virus-1, Helicobacter pylori, Chlamydia pneumoniae), and total pathogen burden on leukocyte telomere length in a diverse US sample. Data came from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a population-based cohort study. We utilized cross-sectional survey data, and biological samples from participants tested for pathogens and telomere length (N = 163). Linear regression was used to examine the association between seropositivity for individual pathogens as well as total pathogen burden and telomere length, adjusting for various confounders. CMV seropositivity and increased total pathogen burden level were significantly associated with shorter telomere length among females (ß = -0·1204 (standard error (s.e.) 0·06), P = 0·044) and (ß = -0·1057 (s.e. = 0·05), P = 0·033), respectively. There was no statistically significant association among males. Our findings suggest that prevention or treatment of persistent pathogens, in particular CMV, may play an important role in reducing telomere shortening over the life course among women. Future research is needed to confirm these novel findings in larger longitudinal samples.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

[Historic treasures of Swiss horse breeding]. / Historische Preziosen der Schweizer Pferdezucht.

INTRODUCTION: Both a mandate of the Bernese Government (1705) and statements in the Georgica Helvetica of 1706 prove that Swiss horse breeding was lucrative and of good quality at that time. However, the political turmoil at the transition from the 18th to 19th century and excessive sales to France and Italy led to a severe drop in quantity as well in quality. The exhibition of horses in Aarau in 1865 showed a wretched state of the material. In the same year, Rudolf Zangger wrote a guide for the discussion of horse breeding in Switzerland. In the following year (1866), Johann Jakob Rychner published a report on horse breeding, and a further treatise on Swiss horse breeding by Johann Heinrich Hirzel followed in 1883. These publications created good and comprehensive fundamentals, which can still be considered valid. However history shows that the results and recommendations of these analyses barely led to improvements. Todays genomics with their possibilities open up a new era of animal breeding and raise bigger demands than ever.

Un mandat du gouvernement bernois de 1705 et les explications de Georgica helvetica de 1706 nous montrent la bonne qualité et la valeur économique de l'élevage chevalin de l'époque. Les troubles politiques à la fin du 18ème siècle et les exportations d'un nombre trop élevé de chevaux vers la France et l'Italie ont eu comme conséquence une perte de la valeur génétique et une diminution du nombre des chevaux. L'exposition chevaline de Aarau en 1865 a montré un triste état de la situation. Pendant la même année, Rudolf Zangger a publié des réflexions sur l'élevage chevalin en Suisse et, une année plus tard, Johann Jakob Rychner en faisait de même. En 1883, Johann Heinrich Hirzel a fait paraître ses propositions sur l'élevage chevalin. Aujourd'hui encore, le contenu de ces publications peut être considéré comme actuel. Une rétrospective montre que ces analyses et les propositions d'améliorations n'ont eu que peu de résultats. Les possibilités actuelles de la génomique ouvrent une nouvelle ère pour l'élevage et représentent un vrai défi pour l'avenir.

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas-implications for environmental monitoring.

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5-7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species' ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40-50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the "ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring".

[Cost-benefit analysis of an intervention to improve udder health in Swiss dairy farms]. / Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse einer Intervention zur Verbesserung der Eutergesundheit in Schweizer Milchviehbetrieben.

The objective of this study was to calculate the national costs associated with udder health in Switzerland and to estimate the cost effectiveness of an udder health intervention program. In 49 farms, yearly mastitis associated costs before and during an intervention were collected at herd level. Costs were calculated for each lactating cow being present in the herd. At the beginning of the intervention, 24 farms received a report with recommendations to improve the udder health. In the following year, those herds were followed-up by their veterinarian at a monthly basis. The other 25 farms were used as a negative control group and neither received any recommendations nor any follow-up. In the first year of analysis (2010), the median udder health associated costs were 209.- Swiss Francs for each lactating cow, regardless of the intervention group. During the intervention period (2012), mastitis associated costs were 191.- Swiss Francs for control farms and 396.- Swiss Francs for farms with veterinary intervention on a monthly basis. The median additional costs for herds with intervention were 159.- Swiss Francs per lactating cow. At the national level, mastitis associated costs were estimated at 129.4 millions of Swiss Francs per year. The cost effectiveness of future mastitis control programs can be evaluated with the help of the deterministic model developed during this study.

Le but du présent travail était de calculer les coûts de la santé de la mamelle dans des exploitations laitières suisses et d'estimer l'efficacité économique d'une intervention en vue de l'améliorer. Pour cela on a relevé les coûts liés aux mammites sur une année dans 49 exploitations, et cela durant l'année précédant l'intervention puis dans l'année de l'intervention et on l'a divisé par le nombre de vaches en lactation. Vingt-quatre exploitations ont reçu au début de l'étude des recommandations en vue d'améliorer la santé de la mamelle et ont ensuite été suivies mensuellement durant une année par leur vétérinaire d'exploitation. Les 25 autres exploitations n'ont reçu aucune recommandation et ont été utilisées comme groupe de contrôle. Dans la première année d'analyse (2 ans avant l'intervention, 2010), les coûts moyens de la santé de la mamelle, indépendamment du groupe s'élevaient à CHF 209.­ par vache en lactation. Durant l'année de l'intervention, ils se montaient à CHF 191.­ pour les exploitations de contrôle contre CHF 396.- pour les exploitations suivies. Les dépenses supplémentaires durant l'intervention s'élevaient en moyenne à CHF 159.­ par vache en lactation. Au niveau national, on estime les coûts liés aux mammites à CHF 129.4 millions. Les modèles de calcul utilisés dans la présente étude permettent de juger à l'avenir de la rentabilité des programmes de contrôle des mammites.

Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

Echoes from the past: a healthy Baltic Sea requires more effort.

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.

The potential of current- and wind-driven transport for environmental management of the Baltic Sea.

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.

[Matthias Anker and the foal]. / Matthias Anker und das Fohlen.

In 1828, the Society of Swiss Veterinarians (GST) raised a prize question in regard to the symptoms, etiology and prophylaxis of polyarthritis in the foal. The treatise of Matthias Anker on this subject was treated with distinction and published in 1830. His statements answered both the questions to the clinical aspects and referred also to epidemiological, pathological, economical and ethical issues as well as husbandry and relations with the breeders. The comprehensive article of Anker in a lucid language and obliging views still finds great interest today, as the septicemia is one of the big problems in stud medicine now as before. Moreover it is astonishing that the recommendations of Anker were disregarded too often. The reasons for this fact may be due to the inadequate transfer of knowledge, on the one hand because of the educational system in that time, on the other side due to the modest economical importance of horse breeding and the neglected formation in this field. The recommendations are still valid.

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

The biocompatibility of dense and porous Nickel-Titanium produced by selective laser melting.

Nickel-Titanium shape memory alloys (NiTi-SMA) are of biomedical interest due to their unusual range of pure elastic deformability and their elastic modulus, which is closer to that of bone than any other metallic or ceramic material. Newly developed porous NiTi, produced by Selective Laser Melting (SLM), is currently under investigation as a potential carrier material for human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSC). SLM enables the production of highly complex and tailor-made implants for patients on the basis of CT data. Such implants could be used for the reconstruction of the skull, face, or pelvis. hMSC are a promising cell type for regenerative medicine and tissue engineering due to their ability to support the regeneration of critical size bone defects. Loading porous SLM-NiTi implants with autologous hMSC may enhance bone growth and healing for critical bone defects. The purpose of this study was to assess whether porous SLM-NiTi is a suitable carrier for hMSC. Specimens of varying porosity and surface structure were fabricated via SLM. hMSC were cultured for 8 days on NiTi specimens, and cell viability was analyzed using two-color fluorescence staining. Viable cells were detected on all specimens after 8 days of cell culture. Cell morphology and surface topography were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Cell morphology and surface topology were dependent on the orientation of the specimens during SLM production. The Nickel ion release can be reduced significantly by aligned laser processing conditions. The presented results clearly attest that both dense SLM-NiTi and porous SLM-NiTi are suitable carriers for hMSC. Nevertheless, before carrying out in vivo studies, some work on optimization of the manufacturing process and post-processing is required.